This is a pretty long post, but I think well worth reading. It is my own scenario of an Obama Presidency
I have been considering how an Obama Presidency might play out after watching the Debates and the scenario I see isn’t pretty.
The Iran-Venezuelan Missile Crisis of 2011
2009 Middle East
· In February 2009, President Obama and SECDEF Wesley Clark announce the US troop withdrawal plan for Iraq-all US troops gone by summer 2010, coincidentally right before the mid-term Congressional elections.
· Watching the televised address, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad sends Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Quds forces into Iraq to rebuild the Shia Mahdi Army. Sectarian violence begins to rise through the summer of 2009 as Shia death squads start killing Iraqi Sunnis around Baghdad. Iran also sends arms into Afghanistan.
· Attempting to appear tough on the war on terror, President Obama publicly demands that Pakistan attack Taliban positions in Waziristan and authorizes US troops to attack Taliban strongholds inside Pakistan. During one of these cross border raids, US forces are fired on by Pakistani troops, losing several helicopters and troops. Thinking they are under attack by Taliban units, US forces fire back, killing dozens of Pakistani troops.
· In retaliation, Pakistan closes the primary supply route for NATO forces in Afghanistan. President Obama, under the advice of Secretary of State Richard Holbrook, cuts off foreign aid to Pakistan. By year’s end, the civilian government has fallen and a pro-Taliban military coup had gained power.
· Iran also increases aid to Hezbollah and covertly sends IRGC forces into Lebanon with advanced surface to air missile (SAM) systems provided by Russia.
· By year’s end, the Sunnis have pulled out of the Iraqi government as sectarian violence increases. US troops, cut in half, do not intervene and the Sunnis begin to rearm their militias and forbid the Shia dominated army from entering Anbar Province. The Maliki government, dominated by pro-Iranian Shia politician, does not stop the killings or attempt to disarm the Mahdi army. Moqtada Al-Sadr returns from exile in Iran and openly defies the Iraqi government by assuming “command” of the Mahdi forces. As Iraq sinks into chaos, President Obama resists calls to halt the troop withdrawals, stating “Iraqis must solve their own problems, we can’t afford $10 billion a month when we have pressing economic issues at home.” Intelligence showing direct Iranian involvement in the violence is ignored.
2009 South America
· Venezuela continues its military buildup of Russian weapons and restarts covert aid to FARC guerillas in Colombia. Chavez travels to Iran to coordinate efforts against America and offers training camps to the IRGC in Venezuela.
2010 Middle East
· With supply lines through Pakistan cut off, US casualties begin to increase as the Taliban rebuilds in new safe havens protected by the Pakistani military. Because all supplies must be brought in over a tenuous air route, the cost of the war begins to go up as the Pentagon thinks it might double by year’s end. Left wing groups such as MoveOn.org and ANSWER begin demanding an end to all US military action in the Middle East to meet “pressing domestic social welfare programs” as Afghanistan is becoming a “lost cause and another Iraq.” NATO also begins considering a pull out as Taliban units specifically target NATO units, inflicting dozens of casualties on German, Dutch and Norwegian troops. The Afghan government weakens and local warlords begin dealing directly with the Taliban to protect their drug trade. Large swaths of the country essentially pass to Taliban control.
· By early summer, Iran tests its first nuclear device and announces that it has a “Rocket Corps” able to “rain holy fire” on Israel if Iran is attacked. Israel prepares a full conventional strike on Iranian nuclear facilities but is halted by extreme pressure from the US after a steep rise in oil, threatening the US economy before Congressional elections, where Democrats are trailing due to a severe recession brought on by the Obama tax increases and public perception that the US is losing the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Israel responds by stating that nuclear-armed missiles are pointed at Iran and begins preparing nuclear cruise missiles for its submarine force and a covert group of merchants ship armed with Israeli Jericho IRBMs. Iran and Hezbollah begin preparing for another war with Israel, this time planning to force all the Arab states into the conflict.
· In the 2010 elections, Democrats lose 5 Senate and 20 House seats as oil prices continue the recession. President Obama, seeking to salvage his domestic agenda, announces that “10 years in enough” and plans on withdrawing all US troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2011, just in time to kick off his reelection campaign. NATO also announces that all of their forces will be removed in 6 months.
2010 South America
· IRGC forces set up bases in Venezuela and start to coordinate efforts with FARC. Violence increases in Colombia and President Obama and the Democratic Congress continue to deny Colombia a free trade agreement, to “Keep American jobs in America.”
2011 Middle East
· With all US troops gone from Iraq, the Shia dominated army invades Anbar Province, backed by IRGC forces. Thousands of Sunni refugees flee into Jordan and Saudi Arabia as Syria closes its border with Iraq. Iraqi Kurds declare independence and prepare for and attack by the Iraqi Army.
· In Afghanistan, US troops begin to pull out and Taliban forces flood across the border from Pakistan, taking control of most of the country outside Kabul and preparing to take over the government after the US and NATO leave.
· Iran makes a secret pact with Venezuela to place nuclear missiles at several sites controlled by the IRGC. 10 missiles and warheads are placed in the jungle, capable of reaching the southern US and most of South America.
· IRGC and Hezbollah forces move into position along the Israeli border while hundreds of SSMs and IRBMs are prepared in firing positions. Noting the buildup, the Israelis send their submarines and covert missile ships to sea.
· In the summer of 2011, almost five years to the day from the 2006 war, Hezbollah launches dozens of missiles into Israel in a sneak attack. These new missiles are capable of reaching Haifa and Tel Aviv and hundreds of Israeli civilians are killed and wounded. Israel responds with a massive air attack into Lebanon and mobilizes its army. Because Hezbollah has placed its missiles in civilian neighborhoods, many civilian casualties ensue, which Al Jazera endlessly replays to show Israeli “aggression.”
· Undeterred and still smarting from the 2006 war, Israel sends massive ground forces into Lebanon and also bombs installations in Syria it says are used as Hezbollah bases. Syria mobilizes and sends armored units opposite the Golan Heights.
· President Obama calls an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, but Russia vetoes a cease-fire resolution, saying Israel must withdraw from Lebanon and face sanctions as the “aggressor” state. President Obama makes a personal appeal to Iran, which is rebuffed.
· As the Israelis move deeper into Lebanon, Hezbollah appeals to Iran for help as the Israeli Air Force (IAF) continues to pound any locations where missile launchers may be. Iranian funded Hamas launches a surprise SSM attack into Israel from the Gaza Strip, firing missiles into Tel Aviv, Haifa and Eilat. Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) units move into Gaza and the IAF flatten the neighborhoods where the missiles were launched, all dutifully broadcast by Al Jazera. Iranian funded groups begin rioting in the streets of Cairo, Amman, Riyadh and Dubai, demanding that Arabs defend the “oppressed members of the resistance.”
· As the IDF rolls over Gaza and the West Bank and approach the suburbs of Beirut, Iran threatens “holy fire” on Tel Aviv, if Israel does not pull back its forces from all “aggressively invaded lands.” Israel refuses and threatens retaliation if Iran uses nuclear weapons. Iran also says it is “time for the destruction of the Great Satan” and tells the US that 10 nuclear armed missiles are located in Venezuela and will be fired at the US if Israel does not withdrawal.
· Arab governments, shaken by the Iranian saber rattling and the weak US response, which consist of continuous appeals to the UN, EU and Arab League, as well as constant appeals by President Obama for direct negotiations, begin to mobilize their armies and demand Israel withdraw its forces.
· President Obama, under pressure from the Chairman of the JCS, General David Petraeus, orders full mobilization of Reserve and National Guard units but does not allow preemptive strikes on known missile positions in Venezuela, stating “preemption is one of the failed policies of the previous Administration.” Obama continues to make personal appeals to all parties for a cease-fire and direct negotiations. Gen Petraeus moves three Navy warships with advanced Aegis ABM capability into the Gulf of Mexico and near Key West as a defensive measure.
· Four weeks after the fighting began, Hezbollah and Hamas tell Iran they are out of ammunition and nearing defeat. Iran launches 4 nuclear missiles at Tel Aviv and 2 nuclear missiles against the USS Ronald Reagan Carrier Battlegroup in the Southern Arabian Gulf. Israeli Arrow and Patriot missiles shoot down all 4 missiles, scattering debris across Syria. Aegis cruisers also shoot down both missiles aimed at the Reagan. IRGC units in Venezuela launch all 4 available missiles at the U.S. The locations are immediately targeted and attacked by cruise missiles from the USS Ohio, an American SSGN lying off the coast of Venezuela and three launchers are destroyed and the fourth damaged. 3 missiles are shot down by the Aegis ships off the US coast, but the fourth missile impacts on Miami, Florida. The primitive warhead yields about 20 kilotons, roughly the same yield as the Hiroshima bomb, but it devastates Miami. 150,000 Americans are dead or dying and another 200,000 are injured and panic sweeps the country and the world as Israel launches 2 missiles at Iran, obliterating Tehran and Qom. A further wave of American cruise missiles strikes Venezuela and Israel threatens to destroy the three largest cities in every Arab country if they do not start demobilizing within 48 hours. The Venezuelan military quickly overthrows Chavez and pleads for a cease-fire with the US
· The mullahs and Ahmadinejad, hiding in an installation in the Zagreb Mountains, mobilize their entire army and militia, sending it through Iraq and into Syria to sweep into Israel from the north. The Arab armies, except for Syria and the Shia dominated Iraq, stop mobilizing and threaten Israel with destruction if more nuclear weapons are used.
· In Afghanistan, the remaining US and NATO troops are nearly overrun by scores of suicide bombers and human wave attacks. The remaining survivors are forced to escape and evade in the hopes of eventual rescue.
· Pakistan now enters the fray, offering to send 20 missiles and nuclear warheads to Saudi Arabia to “defend our Arab brothers” and dispatches these missiles by air and sea. The US urges restraint as oil nears $300/barrel and President Obama is forced to open the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to stave off an economic collapse as National Guard units are rushed to Miami.
· As Al Jazera shows footage of the nuclear devastation of Tehran and Qom, Iranian forces sweep through Iraq and into Syria. The Israelis, already fully engaged in Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank, informs the US that “all available means” will be used to repel the Iranians. President Obama is seized by indecision as the situation spirals out of control and the magnitude of the disaster in Afghanistan sinks in-of the 50,000 American and NATO troops, 10,000 are dead or missing and 40,000 are cut off, on the run and likely to be lost-10 times the casualties of “George W. Bush’s War” in Iraq. Only the steady hand of General Petraeus keeps the situation under control. Informing the President that no other options are available, the USS Kentucky, an Ohio class SSBN is ordered to target Iranian nuclear, naval and military targets. Although President Obama continues to desire direct diplomacy, even the SECDEF and SECSTATE acknowledge that diplomacy is gone.
· On September 11, 2011 fifty nuclear warheads shower Iran, completely destroying all military targets and killing millions of Iranians. The Israelis also launch missiles not only at the Iranian Armies massing in Syria, but Damascus, Baghdad and Basra. The Iranian Army is wiped out and millions more killed. Israel declares a unilateral cease-fire and demands Pakistan not assemble the missiles in Saudi Arabia or Mecca and Median will be “wiped off the map.” Exhausted and out of ammunition, Hezbollah and Hamas agree to the cease-fire, which Israel says it will honor only if all remaining fighters lay down their arms and surrender. To make the point, the IAF launches one last massive air campaign, prompting a reluctant surrender by the “martyred fighters of Allah.” Under Saudi pressure, Pakistan does not assemble the missiles, but keeps them in country.
· By the end of 2011, the Middle East is ruin, the US economy is in tatters and millions are dead, dying, wounded or refugees. The entire Arab world repudiates peace with Israel and only a major rescue effort saves 20,000 of the 50,000 troops in Afghanistan. Republicans in Congress begin demanding hearings as recovery continues in Miami and even though President Obama's allies in Congress try to control or divert the hearings, details of weakness, vacillation and a misguided faith in personal diplomacy come out. With his approval ratings at 10%, by May 2012, President Obama announces he will not run for a second term. Retiring 6 weeks after the announcement, General David Petraeus beings contemplating his running mate…….
I have been considering how an Obama Presidency might play out after watching the Debates and the scenario I see isn’t pretty.
The Iran-Venezuelan Missile Crisis of 2011
2009 Middle East
· In February 2009, President Obama and SECDEF Wesley Clark announce the US troop withdrawal plan for Iraq-all US troops gone by summer 2010, coincidentally right before the mid-term Congressional elections.
· Watching the televised address, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad sends Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Quds forces into Iraq to rebuild the Shia Mahdi Army. Sectarian violence begins to rise through the summer of 2009 as Shia death squads start killing Iraqi Sunnis around Baghdad. Iran also sends arms into Afghanistan.
· Attempting to appear tough on the war on terror, President Obama publicly demands that Pakistan attack Taliban positions in Waziristan and authorizes US troops to attack Taliban strongholds inside Pakistan. During one of these cross border raids, US forces are fired on by Pakistani troops, losing several helicopters and troops. Thinking they are under attack by Taliban units, US forces fire back, killing dozens of Pakistani troops.
· In retaliation, Pakistan closes the primary supply route for NATO forces in Afghanistan. President Obama, under the advice of Secretary of State Richard Holbrook, cuts off foreign aid to Pakistan. By year’s end, the civilian government has fallen and a pro-Taliban military coup had gained power.
· Iran also increases aid to Hezbollah and covertly sends IRGC forces into Lebanon with advanced surface to air missile (SAM) systems provided by Russia.
· By year’s end, the Sunnis have pulled out of the Iraqi government as sectarian violence increases. US troops, cut in half, do not intervene and the Sunnis begin to rearm their militias and forbid the Shia dominated army from entering Anbar Province. The Maliki government, dominated by pro-Iranian Shia politician, does not stop the killings or attempt to disarm the Mahdi army. Moqtada Al-Sadr returns from exile in Iran and openly defies the Iraqi government by assuming “command” of the Mahdi forces. As Iraq sinks into chaos, President Obama resists calls to halt the troop withdrawals, stating “Iraqis must solve their own problems, we can’t afford $10 billion a month when we have pressing economic issues at home.” Intelligence showing direct Iranian involvement in the violence is ignored.
2009 South America
· Venezuela continues its military buildup of Russian weapons and restarts covert aid to FARC guerillas in Colombia. Chavez travels to Iran to coordinate efforts against America and offers training camps to the IRGC in Venezuela.
2010 Middle East
· With supply lines through Pakistan cut off, US casualties begin to increase as the Taliban rebuilds in new safe havens protected by the Pakistani military. Because all supplies must be brought in over a tenuous air route, the cost of the war begins to go up as the Pentagon thinks it might double by year’s end. Left wing groups such as MoveOn.org and ANSWER begin demanding an end to all US military action in the Middle East to meet “pressing domestic social welfare programs” as Afghanistan is becoming a “lost cause and another Iraq.” NATO also begins considering a pull out as Taliban units specifically target NATO units, inflicting dozens of casualties on German, Dutch and Norwegian troops. The Afghan government weakens and local warlords begin dealing directly with the Taliban to protect their drug trade. Large swaths of the country essentially pass to Taliban control.
· By early summer, Iran tests its first nuclear device and announces that it has a “Rocket Corps” able to “rain holy fire” on Israel if Iran is attacked. Israel prepares a full conventional strike on Iranian nuclear facilities but is halted by extreme pressure from the US after a steep rise in oil, threatening the US economy before Congressional elections, where Democrats are trailing due to a severe recession brought on by the Obama tax increases and public perception that the US is losing the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Israel responds by stating that nuclear-armed missiles are pointed at Iran and begins preparing nuclear cruise missiles for its submarine force and a covert group of merchants ship armed with Israeli Jericho IRBMs. Iran and Hezbollah begin preparing for another war with Israel, this time planning to force all the Arab states into the conflict.
· In the 2010 elections, Democrats lose 5 Senate and 20 House seats as oil prices continue the recession. President Obama, seeking to salvage his domestic agenda, announces that “10 years in enough” and plans on withdrawing all US troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2011, just in time to kick off his reelection campaign. NATO also announces that all of their forces will be removed in 6 months.
2010 South America
· IRGC forces set up bases in Venezuela and start to coordinate efforts with FARC. Violence increases in Colombia and President Obama and the Democratic Congress continue to deny Colombia a free trade agreement, to “Keep American jobs in America.”
2011 Middle East
· With all US troops gone from Iraq, the Shia dominated army invades Anbar Province, backed by IRGC forces. Thousands of Sunni refugees flee into Jordan and Saudi Arabia as Syria closes its border with Iraq. Iraqi Kurds declare independence and prepare for and attack by the Iraqi Army.
· In Afghanistan, US troops begin to pull out and Taliban forces flood across the border from Pakistan, taking control of most of the country outside Kabul and preparing to take over the government after the US and NATO leave.
· Iran makes a secret pact with Venezuela to place nuclear missiles at several sites controlled by the IRGC. 10 missiles and warheads are placed in the jungle, capable of reaching the southern US and most of South America.
· IRGC and Hezbollah forces move into position along the Israeli border while hundreds of SSMs and IRBMs are prepared in firing positions. Noting the buildup, the Israelis send their submarines and covert missile ships to sea.
· In the summer of 2011, almost five years to the day from the 2006 war, Hezbollah launches dozens of missiles into Israel in a sneak attack. These new missiles are capable of reaching Haifa and Tel Aviv and hundreds of Israeli civilians are killed and wounded. Israel responds with a massive air attack into Lebanon and mobilizes its army. Because Hezbollah has placed its missiles in civilian neighborhoods, many civilian casualties ensue, which Al Jazera endlessly replays to show Israeli “aggression.”
· Undeterred and still smarting from the 2006 war, Israel sends massive ground forces into Lebanon and also bombs installations in Syria it says are used as Hezbollah bases. Syria mobilizes and sends armored units opposite the Golan Heights.
· President Obama calls an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, but Russia vetoes a cease-fire resolution, saying Israel must withdraw from Lebanon and face sanctions as the “aggressor” state. President Obama makes a personal appeal to Iran, which is rebuffed.
· As the Israelis move deeper into Lebanon, Hezbollah appeals to Iran for help as the Israeli Air Force (IAF) continues to pound any locations where missile launchers may be. Iranian funded Hamas launches a surprise SSM attack into Israel from the Gaza Strip, firing missiles into Tel Aviv, Haifa and Eilat. Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) units move into Gaza and the IAF flatten the neighborhoods where the missiles were launched, all dutifully broadcast by Al Jazera. Iranian funded groups begin rioting in the streets of Cairo, Amman, Riyadh and Dubai, demanding that Arabs defend the “oppressed members of the resistance.”
· As the IDF rolls over Gaza and the West Bank and approach the suburbs of Beirut, Iran threatens “holy fire” on Tel Aviv, if Israel does not pull back its forces from all “aggressively invaded lands.” Israel refuses and threatens retaliation if Iran uses nuclear weapons. Iran also says it is “time for the destruction of the Great Satan” and tells the US that 10 nuclear armed missiles are located in Venezuela and will be fired at the US if Israel does not withdrawal.
· Arab governments, shaken by the Iranian saber rattling and the weak US response, which consist of continuous appeals to the UN, EU and Arab League, as well as constant appeals by President Obama for direct negotiations, begin to mobilize their armies and demand Israel withdraw its forces.
· President Obama, under pressure from the Chairman of the JCS, General David Petraeus, orders full mobilization of Reserve and National Guard units but does not allow preemptive strikes on known missile positions in Venezuela, stating “preemption is one of the failed policies of the previous Administration.” Obama continues to make personal appeals to all parties for a cease-fire and direct negotiations. Gen Petraeus moves three Navy warships with advanced Aegis ABM capability into the Gulf of Mexico and near Key West as a defensive measure.
· Four weeks after the fighting began, Hezbollah and Hamas tell Iran they are out of ammunition and nearing defeat. Iran launches 4 nuclear missiles at Tel Aviv and 2 nuclear missiles against the USS Ronald Reagan Carrier Battlegroup in the Southern Arabian Gulf. Israeli Arrow and Patriot missiles shoot down all 4 missiles, scattering debris across Syria. Aegis cruisers also shoot down both missiles aimed at the Reagan. IRGC units in Venezuela launch all 4 available missiles at the U.S. The locations are immediately targeted and attacked by cruise missiles from the USS Ohio, an American SSGN lying off the coast of Venezuela and three launchers are destroyed and the fourth damaged. 3 missiles are shot down by the Aegis ships off the US coast, but the fourth missile impacts on Miami, Florida. The primitive warhead yields about 20 kilotons, roughly the same yield as the Hiroshima bomb, but it devastates Miami. 150,000 Americans are dead or dying and another 200,000 are injured and panic sweeps the country and the world as Israel launches 2 missiles at Iran, obliterating Tehran and Qom. A further wave of American cruise missiles strikes Venezuela and Israel threatens to destroy the three largest cities in every Arab country if they do not start demobilizing within 48 hours. The Venezuelan military quickly overthrows Chavez and pleads for a cease-fire with the US
· The mullahs and Ahmadinejad, hiding in an installation in the Zagreb Mountains, mobilize their entire army and militia, sending it through Iraq and into Syria to sweep into Israel from the north. The Arab armies, except for Syria and the Shia dominated Iraq, stop mobilizing and threaten Israel with destruction if more nuclear weapons are used.
· In Afghanistan, the remaining US and NATO troops are nearly overrun by scores of suicide bombers and human wave attacks. The remaining survivors are forced to escape and evade in the hopes of eventual rescue.
· Pakistan now enters the fray, offering to send 20 missiles and nuclear warheads to Saudi Arabia to “defend our Arab brothers” and dispatches these missiles by air and sea. The US urges restraint as oil nears $300/barrel and President Obama is forced to open the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to stave off an economic collapse as National Guard units are rushed to Miami.
· As Al Jazera shows footage of the nuclear devastation of Tehran and Qom, Iranian forces sweep through Iraq and into Syria. The Israelis, already fully engaged in Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank, informs the US that “all available means” will be used to repel the Iranians. President Obama is seized by indecision as the situation spirals out of control and the magnitude of the disaster in Afghanistan sinks in-of the 50,000 American and NATO troops, 10,000 are dead or missing and 40,000 are cut off, on the run and likely to be lost-10 times the casualties of “George W. Bush’s War” in Iraq. Only the steady hand of General Petraeus keeps the situation under control. Informing the President that no other options are available, the USS Kentucky, an Ohio class SSBN is ordered to target Iranian nuclear, naval and military targets. Although President Obama continues to desire direct diplomacy, even the SECDEF and SECSTATE acknowledge that diplomacy is gone.
· On September 11, 2011 fifty nuclear warheads shower Iran, completely destroying all military targets and killing millions of Iranians. The Israelis also launch missiles not only at the Iranian Armies massing in Syria, but Damascus, Baghdad and Basra. The Iranian Army is wiped out and millions more killed. Israel declares a unilateral cease-fire and demands Pakistan not assemble the missiles in Saudi Arabia or Mecca and Median will be “wiped off the map.” Exhausted and out of ammunition, Hezbollah and Hamas agree to the cease-fire, which Israel says it will honor only if all remaining fighters lay down their arms and surrender. To make the point, the IAF launches one last massive air campaign, prompting a reluctant surrender by the “martyred fighters of Allah.” Under Saudi pressure, Pakistan does not assemble the missiles, but keeps them in country.
· By the end of 2011, the Middle East is ruin, the US economy is in tatters and millions are dead, dying, wounded or refugees. The entire Arab world repudiates peace with Israel and only a major rescue effort saves 20,000 of the 50,000 troops in Afghanistan. Republicans in Congress begin demanding hearings as recovery continues in Miami and even though President Obama's allies in Congress try to control or divert the hearings, details of weakness, vacillation and a misguided faith in personal diplomacy come out. With his approval ratings at 10%, by May 2012, President Obama announces he will not run for a second term. Retiring 6 weeks after the announcement, General David Petraeus beings contemplating his running mate…….
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