GO NAVY BEAT ARMY

GO NAVY BEAT ARMY

'87 Sir

Thirty years of service ----USNA Class of 1987 '87 Sir

Friday, February 14, 2014

It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

Yup, ol' Yogi Berra was truly a man ahead of his time.  Here's another blast from the AMU past.  It's interesting that in spite of the moronic "brick and mortar" dinosaurs that poo-poo "For profit schools" how relevant and timely much of my coursework was.

The most significant threats to the United States for the next 25 years will be:
  • A potential “axis” of China and Russia to form a counterbalance to American power:  The U.S. is currently considered a “hyperpower” by some quarters of the international community and the desire of China and Russia to be major players on the international stage will likely draw them closer together diplomatically and potentially militarily.  Diplomatically, both China and Russia are veto-holding members of the UN Security Council and have shown their willingness to use those vetoes to oppose issues important to the U.S., such as Iranian nuclear sanctions.  Both nations are also major exporters of weapons and military technology to nations unfriendly to the U.S.  Militarily, the Russians have been major arms suppliers to the Chinese and both countries have opposed a major U.S. presence in the “stans” of central Asia.  Although the traditional rivalry of the two countries may still exist at some level, their mutual desire to see U.S. influence decrease, particularly in Central Asia, makes them natural allies of convenience.  
------>  This is still pretty true.  Both Russia and China continue to feel their oats in this era of American weakness driven by the foreign policy neglect and incompetence of this Administration. 

  • The continuing global Islamic insurgency, particularly in areas where failed or weak states exist:  Although the U.S. has made significant progress in Iraq of late, the lingering insurgency along the Afghan-Pakistani border is unlikely to go away.  The ability of Al Qaeda and its web of allies to maintain a significant presence in Pakistan, Somalia and other Middle East states as well as networks in Europe will require continued vigilance by the U.S.  As oil prices skyrocket to new levels, Iran will continue to meddle in the Middle East through their support for Hezbollah and Hamas in their attempts to undermine the Lebanese government and prepare for further conflict with Israel.  Finally, the continuing quest by Islamic terror groups to obtain WMDs is the nightmare scenario and part of the larger proliferation picture.
 ------>  This was certainly true in 2008 when this was written (pre-Obama, of course), but it is interesting in light of events in Syria and the current Shia-Sunni civil or cold war brewing in the Middle East.  I never expected to see Hezbollah and Al Qaeda fighting it out...but hey, what's not to like?  One terrorist group killing another terrorist group.  Let's just pop popcorn and watch the cage match.  Cynical?  Yup.  Practical?  Yup.   Feel bad about it?  Nope.

  • The proliferation of nuclear weapons and other WMDs:  WMD proliferation will be the biggest threat to both U.S. interests and to global stability in general for the next 25 years.  As mentioned above, the continuing quest by Islamic terror groups to obtain WMDs and use them on either American or Israeli interests is the number one threat the U.S. faces.  However, the proliferation of WMDs and particularly nuclear weapons offers its own set of challenges.  As both Clawson and Sokolski note in their essays, the potential for a nuclear arms race in the Middle East between Shia and Sunni Arabs presents an entirely new possibility for either an accidental or intentional nuclear exchange.  The added instability of many of the regimes in the region, particularly Pakistan’s, presents the ultimate national security challenge of an Islamic fundamentalist Taliban-style regime with nuclear weapons and a delivery capability.  Preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, particularly in the Middle East will be America’s primary strategic security challenge for the next 25 years.
  ------>  This was certainly true in 2008 when this was written (pre-Obama, of course), but is even more scary now.  With the moronically hopeless Iranian "nuclear agreement"  (read Obama surrender to avoid having to do anything about this existential threat to world peace), the potential for a Shia-Sunni nuclear arms race becomes more real every day.  This is even more dangerous than an Israeli-Iranian nuclear standoff, because I wouldn't put it past some suicide bomber knuckle head to use a small nuke.  Wouldn't that be special?

I have to say, I hate it when I'm right, but I got this pretty close...at least Yogi Berra close.

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